As we start a new year, many in the collision repair industry wonder what the new year has in store. 2025 was an unusual year, with falling claims volume across the industry, but rising total loss frequency.
As we look at 2026, the obvious question is—will that continue? Several factors influence claims frequency, such as fuel prices, weather, and increased deductibles. So far, we are experiencing a reduction in fuel prices, which means more miles driven by the motoring public and, in turn, increased potential collisions.
Weather can be a bit more nuanced. Massive amounts of snow, such as recently seen in New York, reduce winter driving and therefore would result in a decrease in accident frequency in those areas. The key is to get enough snow to make conditions slick, but not enough to discourage driving altogether. A second weather factor to watch for is icy conditions in southern states, where most of those states do not have road salt spreading capabilities.
Increased state minimum limits, such as the newly enacted increases in Virginia, California, and Utah, cause premiums to increase, and many drivers will opt for higher deductibles or eliminate coverages in order to offset those cost jumps. This means fewer small claims being made through carriers. Some owners will still opt to pay out of pocket, and customer-pay jobs did increase in 2025 and will likely continue to increase in 2026. However, the “sticker shock” experienced by the average vehicle owner when faced with the cost of minor collision repair means that many drivers will opt to “keep the dent and pay the rent.”
Total loss frequency has a few factors to watch. The first is used car values, which are linked to the “repairability equation” for carriers. The higher the value, the more likely the vehicle is to be deemed repairable. So far, experts indicate that used car prices are expected to remain high but stabilize in 2026. Influencers, like YouTube’s “CarEdge”, indicate that more off-lease vehicles from the 2021–2022 period will return to the market, boosting inventory and lowering or stabilizing used car values.
The second major factor is the prevalence of advanced driver assist systems in the U.S. car park, which add expensive components and recalibration costs to repair estimates and, with that increase, result in more total losses. S&P Global now estimates 2025 new U.S. vehicle sales to total nearly 16.3 million units. This means the population of vehicles with ADAS standard equipment features in the car park will continue to rise and, with that, lead to lower claim volume for smaller repairable claims.
Can we look at these factors and develop a prediction of claims volume in 2026? Yes. With the understanding that weather is the wild card, increased premiums and stabilizing used car values would indicate that we should see an overall decrease in claims volume for 2026, with a modest increase in total loss volume owing to stabilized used car prices and the slow creep of ADAS-equipped vehicles in the car park.
